September 2024 Ottawa Real Estate Market Update: What the Numbers Mean for Buyers and Sellers

Oct 2

As we near the end of 2024, the Ottawa real estate market has seen some interesting developments. While the year-to-date statistics show steady growth in many segments, subtle shifts are revealing opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Here’s an in-depth look at what these numbers tell us about the current state of the market and what we might expect moving forward.

Year-to-Date Residential Sales: A Steady Climb

Total residential sales: 10,485 (up 6.4%)
Average sales price: $679,082 (up 0.9%)
Months of inventory: 2.6 (compared to 2.1 last year)

What this means: The increase in total residential sales and a slight uptick in average sales price reflects a resilient market. Inventory levels have risen a bit compared to last year, which suggests more homes are available, giving buyers more choice. However, with 2.6 months of inventory, we are still in a seller’s market. A balanced market typically has 4-6 months of inventory, so while buyers have a bit more breathing room than last year, sellers still hold a degree of leverage.

Year-to-Date Single-Family Sales: Signs of Stability

Total sales: 5,529 (up 9.4%)
Average sales price: $826,348 (down 0.1%)
Months of inventory: 2.9 (compared to 2.4 last year)

What this means: The 9.4% increase in single-family home sales is a strong indicator of buyer demand. Despite this, prices have remained stable, with only a minor 0.1% decline in average sales price. This suggests that while more homes are being sold, sellers aren’t necessarily getting more for their properties, indicating some price resistance from buyers. The increase in inventory to 2.9 months is also worth noting—while still a seller’s market, it’s creeping closer to more balanced conditions, giving buyers more power at the negotiation table.

Year-to-Date Townhome Sales: Buyer Appeal Continues

Total sales: 3,357 (up 5.9%)
Average sales price: $549,993 (down 0.1%)
Months of inventory: 1.9 (compared to 1.5 last year)

What this means: Townhomes remain highly attractive, especially for first-time buyers and those looking for a more affordable entry point into homeownership. The slight dip in average sales price shows buyers are being cautious, and the increase in inventory gives them more options. However, with just 1.9 months of inventory, sellers still hold the upper hand, and properties are moving quickly. For buyers, this means acting fast and being prepared to compete.

Year-to-Date Condo Sales: A Mixed Bag

Total sales: 1,558 (down 1.0%)
Average sales price: $445,769 (up 1.8%)
Months of inventory: 3.2 (compared to 2.4 last year)

What this means: The condo market has been more of a mixed bag this year. The slight decline in total sales (down 1.0%) could reflect buyers being more cautious in this segment or looking for alternative housing options, such as townhomes. However, the 1.8% increase in average sales price indicates that demand remains strong for well-located, high-quality condos, particularly in desirable neighbourhoods. The jump in inventory to 3.2 months suggests a more balanced market, giving buyers more room to negotiate while keeping sellers in a relatively strong position.

What to Expect This Fall: Mortgage Changes Set to Shake Things Up

Looking ahead, Ottawa’s real estate market is likely to see even more activity this fall, thanks to significant upcoming mortgage changes. With the insured mortgage cap increasing to $1.5 million and expanded eligibility for 30-year amortizations, we can expect to see a surge in buyers entering the market—particularly those who may have been priced out or hesitant due to affordability concerns.

These changes are especially relevant for the single-family and townhome markets, where price points and buyer demand align well with the new mortgage caps. Buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines might take this opportunity to make their move, boosting sales activity through the end of the year. For sellers, this could mean more competition among buyers, potentially driving up sale prices and decreasing time on the market.

The Ottawa real estate market remains resilient as we close in on 2024. For sellers, now is a great time to take advantage of increased demand, particularly before the anticipated influx of buyers in the coming months. For buyers, while there are more options available compared to last year, competition remains stiff, especially in the townhome and single-family home segments. Keeping an eye on the market and acting swiftly will be key to securing the right home at the right price.

Data provided by Charlene Weber, a real estate agent with New Purveyors.