Ottawa Real Estate Market Shifts

Since pre-pandemic, Ottawa has seen massive shifts in the market. The graphs below take a look at just some of the ways we can track the real estate market in the Ottawa area.

Year over year, we can see that the prices in all types of properties have risen by considerable margins, nearly 50k per year.

We can also see, for example, that condo prices have been much more volatile than residential prices nearly every year, keeping in mind that price averages are dependent on the number of homes sold that week.

It is also clear to see that year over year, prices are highest in the spring and taper off at the end of the year. The same is clear for listings, which rise in the summer and stay fairly consistent throughout the summer, tapering off in the winter months. With the exception, of course, of the first lockdown which greatly impacted the number of new listings throughout the 2020 spring and summer months. Interestingly, the 2021 state of emergency did not seem to have such a drastic impact on the market.

Sold properties, for the most part, follow the same trends, however, more homes seem to sell later into the year than they are listed.

We can also see a massive boom in listed and sold houses during the 2020 post-lockdown season! This is the spike in the market we saw due to low-interest rates and soaring prices.

Outside of these outliers, however, we’re seeing a fairly standard set of graphs that illustrate a market moving at a similar pace year over year. Prices are rising at a fairly steady rate and new listings are coming onto the market at a similar rate each year.

Near the end of 2022, we saw record lows in terms of sold houses, but more a more average amount of listings. It is worth noting this shows a more balanced market on the horizon - we have more inventory now than we have in the previous 4 years. When the same number of houses are listed, but fewer are bought, this means buyers continue to have more choice and more time.

We spoke with Mitch MacKenzie to get his expert opinion.

Mitch explains that we’ve seen a bit of a slower start in the first five weeks of 2023. Average sale prices for condos and residential homes are lower than 2022, and Mitch expects this trend to stay low into Q3 and Q4 of this year. As of January average sale prices were down an average of 40k in condos and 100k in residential, compared to last January. That said, interestingly enough, Mitch mentions prices are up around 20k from December 2022, meaning we are still seeing a price increase!

Mitch also notes that buyer engagement has been up since the beginning of 2023, with more buyers coming through our website looking for information and hoping to be successful in their search this year.

Sales and listings will also continue to be down throughout this year, Mitch explains. After seeing an almost 50% increase over the past three years, double-digit increases are now gone. Mitch predicts we will finish 2023 1-5% higher than the average of 2022.